A moderate-to-strong El Niño could begin affecting harvests, reservoirs, hydropower and water systems during 2027. At the same time, Middle East instability is already raising costs across energy, shipping, insurance and freight.
The business concern is that the delayed effects of El Niño arrive while higher fuel, fertiliser, freight and financing costs are still working through supplier contracts, import bills and utility systems.
This would not affect every country or sector equally. The greatest exposure sits in markets where food and fuel imports are high, currencies and public finances are weak, subsidies are expensive, and households have limited capacity to absorb further increases in essential costs.
